NDP6 and Vision 2030: Does Namibia Need Another Plan, or a National Turnaround?

𝗕𝘆 𝗗𝗿. 𝗔𝗹𝗯𝗲𝗿𝘁𝘀 𝗠𝘂𝗻𝘆𝗮𝗻𝘆𝗮 𝗞𝘂𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗼𝗻𝗲

𝗔𝘀 𝗡𝗮𝗺𝗶𝗯𝗶𝗮 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝗡𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗗𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗽𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝗻 𝗦𝗶𝘅 (𝗡𝗗𝗣𝟲), 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗻 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗼𝗮𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗩𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟯𝟬, 𝗮𝗻 𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗳𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝘂𝘀. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝘀𝗽𝗶𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗻𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗻𝗼𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗿𝗲𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗮𝗻𝘁, 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝗮 𝗱𝗶𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆.

Economic growth has recently fallen well short of national ambitions. The Bank of Namibia estimates growth of 2.4 per cent for 2025 and projects 1.9 per cent for 2026, against an NDP6 target of an average of 7 per cent or more. Unemployment remains alarmingly high, and hardest on the youth: the 2023 Labour Force Survey puts it at 36.9 per cent on the official definition, and above 50 per cent when discouraged jobseekers are counted. Poverty still affects thousands of households. Inequality persists, and many citizens feel excluded from the country’s economic opportunities.

The question is no longer whether our vision is correct. It is whether our approach is producing the desired results.

For too long, Namibia has measured success by the number of policies developed, strategies launched and meetings held. Yet development is not defined by plans. It is defined by outcomes: jobs created, wealth generated, businesses established, exports increased and lives improved.

The truth is that Namibia does not suffer from a shortage of plans. We suffer from an implementation deficit. The country must move decisively from a planning culture to an execution culture.

𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴, 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗷𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝘂𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴

At the centre of this shift should be a renewed focus on economic production. Our economy remains heavily dependent on government expenditure, raw commodity exports and a relatively small domestic market. This model has reached its limits.

A country of Namibia’s size cannot achieve lasting prosperity while its consumption runs ahead of its production. We must become a nation that produces, manufactures, exports, innovates and competes.

Fortunately, Namibia has competitive advantages that many nations would envy. We are politically stable, with strong democratic institutions. We have regionally important ports, abundant mineral resources, immense renewable energy potential, vast agricultural land and strategic access to regional and international markets.

What is lacking is not opportunity. It is the intensity and urgency needed to convert these advantages into broad-based growth.

𝗔𝗴𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘂𝗹𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲, 𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗴𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗵𝘆𝗱𝗿𝗼𝗴𝗲𝗻

Agriculture is one of our greatest opportunities for transformation. The country must accelerate investment in irrigation, agro-processing, value addition and climate-smart farming. Rather than exporting raw agricultural products, we should increasingly export processed goods that create jobs and keep value within our borders.

Likewise, our mining sector must move beyond exporting raw minerals. Future growth will depend on beneficiation, processing, manufacturing and participation in the global value chains linked to critical minerals and green technologies.

The emerging green hydrogen sector, though still to move from planning to production, offers a once-in-a-generation opportunity. If properly managed, it can catalyse industrialisation, skills development, foreign direct investment and job creation. But this potential will be realised only if local communities, businesses and workers are meaningfully integrated into the value chain.

𝗝𝗼𝗯𝘀 𝗺𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗯𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁

Perhaps the most urgent challenge facing Namibia today is unemployment. Youth unemployment is not merely an economic issue; it is a social, developmental and national stability issue.

Every government policy, budget allocation and public investment should be judged by one simple question: how many sustainable jobs will this create? Labour-intensive sectors such as construction, tourism, agriculture, manufacturing, logistics and digital services should become national priorities.

𝗦𝗸𝗶𝗹𝗹𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝘆

Our education and training systems also require urgent alignment with economic realities. We must close the growing mismatch between the skills being produced and the skills employers need.

The future economy will demand artisans, technicians, engineers, programmers, renewable energy specialists, data analysts and entrepreneurs. Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) must therefore occupy a central place in Namibia’s development agenda. No country has industrialised by producing qualifications alone. Nations develop when they produce skills that support economic transformation.

𝗕𝗮𝗰𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝗺𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘀

Equally important is empowering small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Around the world, SMEs create most new jobs. Yet many Namibian entrepreneurs continue to struggle with access to finance, markets, regulatory compliance and business support.

Government procurement should deliberately create opportunities for local enterprises, and bureaucratic obstacles should be reduced. The private sector must be enabled, not constrained, to serve as the primary engine of job creation.

𝗚𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗱𝗲𝗹𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆

Good governance will remain a critical ingredient of any turnaround. Public institutions must become faster, more accountable and more performance-driven. Projects must be delivered on time and within budget. Public officials must be evaluated not merely on activities performed but on measurable outcomes achieved.

The era of celebrating intentions must give way to the era of delivering results.

𝗔 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗰𝘁

Most importantly, Namibia needs a new national compact. Government alone cannot solve unemployment. Business alone cannot reduce poverty. Labour alone cannot drive growth. Success will require unprecedented collaboration among government, the private sector, organised labour, academia, traditional leaders, development partners and civil society.

If we continue on our current trajectory, Vision 2030 risks remaining an aspiration rather than an achievement. But if we commit to implementation excellence, productive economic transformation, skills development, export growth and job creation, Namibia can still fulfil the promise that inspired Vision 2030.

The future of our nation will not be determined by the plans we write. It will be determined by the actions we take.

Namibia does not need another vision. Namibia needs a national turnaround.

𝘈𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘢𝘶𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘳: 𝘋𝘳. 𝘈𝘭𝘣𝘦𝘳𝘵𝘴 𝘔𝘶𝘯𝘺𝘢𝘯𝘺𝘢 𝘒𝘶𝘭𝘰𝘣𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘋𝘪𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘰𝘳 𝘰𝘧 𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨, 𝘌𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘦 𝘋𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘭𝘰𝘱𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘐𝘊𝘛 𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘕𝘢𝘮𝘪𝘣𝘪𝘢𝘯 𝘊𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘨𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘖𝘱𝘦𝘯 𝘓𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 (𝘕𝘈𝘔𝘊𝘖𝘓). 𝘏𝘪𝘴 𝘲𝘶𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘧𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴 𝘪𝘯𝘤𝘭𝘶𝘥𝘦 𝘢 𝘗𝘩𝘋, 𝘢 𝘚𝘦𝘯𝘪𝘰𝘳 𝘔𝘢𝘯𝘢𝘨𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘋𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘭𝘰𝘱𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘗𝘳𝘰𝘨𝘳𝘢𝘮𝘮𝘦, 𝘢𝘯 𝘈𝘥𝘷𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦𝘥 𝘊𝘰𝘶𝘳𝘴𝘦 𝘪𝘯 𝘋𝘪𝘱𝘭𝘰𝘮𝘢𝘤𝘺, 𝘢 𝘔𝘢𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘳’𝘴 𝘪𝘯 𝘔𝘢𝘯𝘢𝘨𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘢 𝘔𝘢𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘳 𝘰𝘧 𝘈𝘳𝘵𝘴 𝘪𝘯 𝘗𝘰𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭 𝘚𝘵𝘶𝘥𝘪𝘦𝘴, 𝘢𝘮𝘰𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘴. 𝘏𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘥 𝘪𝘯 𝘥𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘭𝘰𝘱𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘱𝘭𝘢𝘯𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘢𝘨𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘛𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘴𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘕𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘋𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘭𝘰𝘱𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘗𝘭𝘢𝘯.

𝘋𝘪𝘴𝘤𝘭𝘢𝘪𝘮𝘦𝘳: 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘷𝘪𝘦𝘸𝘴 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘭𝘦 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘴𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘢𝘶𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘳 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘥𝘰 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘯𝘦𝘤𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘭𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘭𝘦𝘤𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘷𝘪𝘦𝘸𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘕𝘢𝘮𝘪𝘣𝘪𝘢𝘯 𝘊𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘨𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘖𝘱𝘦𝘯 𝘓𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 (𝘕𝘈𝘔𝘊𝘖𝘓).